Taylor Harrison
The US natural gas price proxy slipped on September 25 as a potential return of American LNG sales to China ran up against a trade that has shrunk sharply since tariffs took effect. The United States Natural Gas Fund unit closed at $11.13, down 3.64% for the day, while the longer term supply outlook is being reshaped by Qatar’s production losses and China’s changing sources of gas.
| Price | 11.13 USD |
|---|---|
| Day change | -0.42 (-3.64%) |
| 52-week range | 9.54 – 11.67 |
| Volume | 43,663,483 |
US natural gas price proxy reflects a changed LNG market
The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP Unit is an exchange traded fund proxy, not a direct quote for natural gas or an LNG benchmark. Its September 25 price of $11.13 sat within a 52 week range of $9.54 to $11.67. The daily decline gives a market level for this report, but by itself it does not identify which supply or demand factor drove the move.
The available data also does not include US gas inventories or the dollar’s movement. Those are important pieces of context for natural gas pricing, but there is no basis here to assign either one a role in the day’s decline. The clearest supply shock in the underlying LNG story is geopolitical: Iranian missile strikes damaged Qatar’s export infrastructure, tightening its ability to meet contracted deliveries.
On March 18 and 19, strikes hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, destroying two of the country’s 14 LNG production trains and a gas to liquids facility. The damage cut about 17% of Qatar’s export capacity. Repairs could take up to five years, and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on long term contracts, later extending the measure into August as work continued.
A second explosion occurred at the complex on June 22 during restart operations, killing at least 13 workers from India and Pakistan. Qatar described it as a technical malfunction rather than sabotage or another attack. The production loss has forced Qatar to secure replacement supply: it bought nearly three dozen spot cargoes from US producer Venture Global to keep deliveries moving to Japan, South Korea, India, Bangladesh and Taiwan.
China’s tariff shut out US cargoes as buyers found alternatives
China’s 15% tariff, imposed in February 2025, halted recorded US LNG shipments to the country. China received 64 US vessels in 2024 and none in 2025. The underlying contracts remained in place, but Chinese buyers redirected cargoes to Europe and Asia rather than paying the tariff to bring them home.
The scale of that break is visible in the import mix. Between January and July, US cargoes represented 0.2% of China’s LNG imports, according to Banchero Costa data. Australia supplied 36%, Southeast Asia 20%, Russia 12% and Canada, a new supplier, 4%. At the 2021 peak, US cargoes made up 12% of Chinese LNG imports, worth $6.2 billion that year.
That earlier trade value should not be mistaken for a current market opportunity of the same size. China imported 68.43 million tons of LNG in 2025, its lowest total in three years. S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie and JPMorgan have lowered their forecasts for Chinese LNG demand in the early 2030s by 14 to 22 million tons. Reuters linked the decline to increased use of piped gas and renewable energy.
On September 14, China Gas Holdings agreed to buy 500,000 metric tons of LNG each year from Venture Global under a 20 year contract, with deliveries due to start in 2030. The volume is well under 1% of China’s 2025 imports. The deal contains no tariff terms, so it does not commit China to take US cargoes while the 15% duty remains in effect.
US export projects need buyers beyond a China deal
Chinese companies already have contracts for close to 25 million tonnes of US LNG a year, signed since 2018 with terms of 20 to 25 years. That existing supply commitment is about 50 times the volume in the new China Gas Holdings agreement. The new contract may signal interest in future US supply, but it does not itself resolve the tariff barrier or guarantee near term deliveries.
Washington and Beijing are discussing a package to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion of exports from each country, including LNG, ahead of the September 24 summit. A tariff cut could reopen direct trade, yet US exporters would be returning to a market that now buys from a wider range of suppliers and faces weaker demand forecasts than it did in 2021.
US projects also differ in how much of their output already has buyers. Venture Global had contracted 91% of its 2026 supply and 75% of its 2027 supply before the China Gas agreement, which does not begin until 2030. Cheniere’s 2022 contract with PetroChina calls for 1.8 million tonnes a year through 2050. About half depends on a positive final investment decision for extra Corpus Christi capacity. Cheniere approved Midscale Trains 8 and 9 in June 2025, and the Chinese contract helped inform that decision.
Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 is fully subscribed at final investment decision, with definitive 20 year sales agreements totaling 10 million tonnes a year. Woodside has confirmed commitments of up to 6.7 million tonnes a year for Louisiana LNG Phase 1, which has nameplate capacity of 16.5 million tonnes. Even so, Reuters estimates that 24.5 million tonnes a year of Gulf Coast capacity under construction lacks a long term buyer.
A restored China trade could help absorb US output, but its scale will depend on tariff policy, China’s demand and the timing of projects. The September 25 ETF reading supplies a market reference, not a verdict on those forces. For now, the physical trade shows how quickly geopolitical disruption and new buying patterns can redraw LNG flows.
