Austin WrightNatural gas prices in Europe and Asia have climbed sharply since spring 2026, after missile and drone strikes tied to the US Iran conflict knocked out key Qatari export capacity and rattled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. With repairs to damaged facilities expected to take years, attention is turning to whether a wave of lng megaprojects poised for construction and expansion can fill the gap as global demand keeps climbing.
At a Glance
- Iranian strikes hit Ras Laffan LNG Trains 4 and 6 and Pearl GTL Train 2, sidelining roughly 12.8 million tonnes per year of capacity for three to five years
- Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 projects global demand near 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, up 65% from 2025 levels
- Qatar plans to grow LNG output from 77 million tonnes to 142 million tonnes annually through its North Field expansion
- Five major projects, in Qatar, Alaska, Argentina and two in Texas, represent the next wave of new supply
- Buyers including TotalEnergies, ADNOC, Aramco and ConocoPhillips are locking in offtake deals years ahead of first shipments
How the Strait of Hormuz Disruption Squeezed Supply
Asia takes in nearly 90% of LNG shipments from Middle East producers such as Qatar and the UAE, while Europe buys 7 to 11% of its LNG from the same region. When Iranian strikes damaged Ras Laffan Trains 4 and 6 this spring, QatarEnergy estimated the two units would be offline for three to five years while repairs proceed. Pearl GTL Train 2, co owned by QatarEnergy and Shell (NYSE:SHEL), is expected to need a year long outage of its own.
The bigger shock came when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that carries the bulk of Qatari exports, was disrupted. According to the Platts Commodities Focus podcast produced by S&P Global Energy, a geopolitical flare up turned into a genuine supply chain problem almost overnight once that chokepoint came under threat. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have drawn safe haven bids amid the broader Middle East tension, while crude oil (USO) has seen its own volatility as traders price in Hormuz risk alongside the gas disruption.
Why the Next Wave of LNG Megaprojects Poised for Growth Matters
Shell's latest LNG Outlook puts global demand at nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, a 65% jump from 2025 levels, as countries lean on natural gas for energy security. That kind of growth curve is why a handful of massive projects now under construction or nearing final investment decisions carry outsized importance. Oilprice.com identified five of the largest, spanning Qatar, Alaska, Argentina and the US Gulf Coast, none ranked in any particular order.
Qatar's North Field West project anchors the list. QatarEnergy awarded Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) a contract covering two LNG mega trains, six gas turbines, 12 centrifugal compressors and integrated power systems. The project is part of a plan to lift Qatar's total LNG capacity from 77 million tonnes to 142 million tonnes per year, with North Field West alone adding about 16 million tonnes annually through two new production lines once complete later this decade.
Alaska, Argentina and the Texas Gulf Coast
Alaska LNG, developed by Glenfarne Group in a 75/25 partnership with the State of Alaska, involves a 739 mile pipeline from the North Slope followed by a liquefaction terminal at Nikiski that extends the total line to 807 miles. Glenfarne is courting two additional buyers for roughly 3 million more metric tons of offtake, needing 80% of its 20 million ton target locked in before a final investment decision. More than 13 million tons are already under contract.
In Argentina, the Vaca Muerta shale basin is the resource base for a project reaching the Atlantic through Río Negro province. A near term floating LNG venture led by Pan American Energy and Golar LNG targets 2.45 million tonnes per year using the Hilli Episeyo vessel by 2027. A much larger 12 to 30 million tonne buildout, driven by YPF alongside Eni and XRG, is aiming for a final investment decision in late 2026 and first shipments around 2030 or 2031, supported by a $70 million marine services deal with Adani Ports and the Meridian Group.
Texas hosts two of the biggest efforts. NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG at the Port of Brownsville is designed for up to 48 million tonnes per year across as many as 10 trains. Trains 1 and 2 are more than 74% complete, with first output expected in the first half of 2027. Trains 4 and 5 secured funding in late 2025 from buyers including TotalEnergies, ADNOC, Aramco and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), and a sixth train is in early regulatory review.
Sempra Infrastructure's Port Arthur LNG, a $25 billion joint venture with ConocoPhillips, carries a nameplate capacity near 26 million tonnes per year across two trains, with Train 1 starting commercial operations in 2027 and Train 2 in 2028. A $12 to 14 billion expansion phase has already reached a final investment decision, adding Trains 3 and 4 by 2030 and 2031 and effectively doubling capacity. Bechtel is building the facility, and buyers such as RWE, PKN Orlen, INEOS and Engie have subscribed to the first phase.
Will New Supply Arrive Fast Enough
The math is straightforward on paper: demand rising 65% by mid century against a pipeline of projects that mostly won't deliver first cargoes until the late 2020s or early 2030s. The Ras Laffan and Pearl GTL outages remove capacity for years just as buyers in Asia and Europe need more certainty, not less. Broader market jitters tied to the conflict have also shown up in currency and asset markets tracked through funds like TLT for Treasuries and DIA for the Dow, a reminder that energy shocks rarely stay contained to one commodity. Whether Qatar's expansion, the Texas Gulf Coast trains, Alaska LNG and Argentina's Vaca Muerta projects can come online on schedule will determine how tight, or how comfortable, the global gas market feels heading into the next decade.
