Alexandra MorenoThe United States Natural Gas Fund (AMEX:UNG) traded at 9.99 dollars on August 23, down 0.2% for the day, sitting well below the top of its 52 week range of 9.54 to 12.11 and carrying an RSI of 44.22 that suggests the fund is neither overbought nor oversold. That modest daily dip masks a bigger story: benchmark gas prices have surged in recent months, and the ripple effects are reshaping how utilities generate power this winter.
- Henry Hub natural gas jumped from 4.23 dollars per MMBtu in early November to above 5 dollars by early December, a three year high.
- Working gas stocks stood at 3,923 Bcf for the week ending December 3, about 5% above the five year average.
- US LNG exports are on pace to hit 14.9 billion cubic feet per day this year, up 25% from 2024.
- Coal is regaining ground as a cheaper alternative for power generation, with plant retirements slowing.
- The EIA projects Henry Hub prices to average 4.00 dollars per MMBtu in 2026, up 16% from 2025.
| Price | 9.99 USD |
|---|---|
| Day change | -0.02 (-0.2%) |
| 52-week range | 9.54 – 12.11 |
| RSI (14) | 44.22 |
| Volume | 7,258,286 |
Key Takeaways
- UNG shares sit near the middle of their yearly range even as underlying gas prices hit three year highs.
- Rising LNG export volumes, not a shortage of gas in storage, are the main force pushing prices upward.
- Utilities are leaning more on coal because gas has become the pricier fuel for generation.
- AI driven electricity demand is now a factor in how long coal plants stay online.
Why Natural Gas Prices Climbed Even With Ample Storage
Front month futures touched 5.084 dollars per MMBtu early Friday, the highest level in three years, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The 12 month futures strip covering January through December 2026 rose 26 cents in a single week to 4.302 dollars per MMBtu. What makes this rally notable is that it happened despite storage levels running 5% above the five year average and less than 1% below year ago totals. A polar vortex bringing freezing temperatures and snow across much of the country pushed heating and power demand higher, and that spike collided with record LNG export volumes to tighten the market even with comfortable inventories on hand.
LNG Exports Keep Setting Records
Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana ramped up shipments faster than the EIA had anticipated, prompting the agency to raise its export forecast for the current quarter by 3% compared with the prior month's outlook. The EIA now expects total US LNG exports to climb another 10% in 2026. That growth trajectory matters because it represents a structural increase in demand for American gas, one that persists regardless of how mild or harsh any single winter turns out to be. Combined with gas production that has stayed largely flat, the export boom is a primary reason the EIA forecasts the 2026 Henry Hub average at 4.00 dollars per MMBtu, 16% above the 2025 average.
Coal Fills the Gap for Utilities
Higher gas costs have made coal fired generation the cheaper option for many electric utilities, and the numbers show it. The EIA expects the 2025 annual average price of natural gas paid by power plants to rise 37% compared with 2024, while industrial customers face a 21% increase. Coal production climbed in response, aided by policy support from the Trump Administration and by the widening price gap with gas. Demand for coal has been strong enough that the EIA expects electric power coal inventories to finish the year at 107 million short tons, a 17% drop from the end of 2024, as utilities burn through stockpiles faster than they replenish them.
Data Centers Add a New Wrinkle
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Reuters in September that most coal fired plants could see their retirements delayed because of surging power demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.
