Alexandra Moreno
The natural gas ETF proxy, United States Natural Gas Fund, climbed 6.26% to $11.55 on Sept. 24. The US natural gas production forecast calls for record output through 2027, even as domestic consumption and liquefied natural gas exports are also projected to expand.
At a Glance
- US gas production is forecast to reach 115.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2027.
- Consumption is also projected to hit 115.9 billion cubic feet per day that year.
- Inventories are expected to begin winter about 5% above the five year average.
- The ETF proxy rose 6.26% to $11.55 on Sept. 24.
| Price | 11.55 USD |
|---|---|
| Day change | +0.68 (+6.26%) |
| Volume | 66,543,561 |
US natural gas production forecast rises alongside demand
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September Short Term Energy Outlook projects record domestic output for each of the next two years. It sees production averaging 111.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, up from 107.6 billion in 2025, then reaching 115.9 billion in 2027.
The agency’s latest 2026 estimates moved higher from its August outlook, which had put production at 111.2 billion cubic feet per day. Drilling efficiency is helping producers raise output, while activity in the Permian and Haynesville regions is supporting growth. Companies are still managing capital spending selectively.
Rising supply does not mean demand is standing still. The EIA expects domestic gas consumption to climb from 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 111.7 billion in 2026 and 115.9 billion in 2027. Its September 2026 demand forecast was 92.0 billion for 2026 in August, before the revised projection.
| Measure, billion cubic feet per day | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 107.6 | 111.7 | 115.9 |
| Consumption | 91.9 | 111.7 | 115.9 |
| LNG exports | 15.1 | 17.4 | 18.6 |
Inventories and exports add context
US gas inventories are on track to enter winter about 5% above the five year average on Oct. 31. That cushion offers a near term supply measure, but the export outlook points to stronger demand for US gas. The EIA projects liquefied natural gas exports will rise from a record 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 17.4 billion in 2026 and 18.6 billion in 2027.
The supplied outlook does not identify a specific geopolitical event or change in the dollar as a driver of the ETF’s daily move. The 6.26% gain is the reported move in the fund, not a direct quote for natural gas itself, and the available figures do not establish its cause.
Producers focus on current assets as gas reserves grow
An Ernst & Young study covering five years of results from the 30 largest publicly traded exploration and production companies describes an industry emphasizing asset performance and capital discipline. Capital expenditures fell 49% year over year, while merger and acquisition spending dropped 70%.
Large transactions still reshaped company portfolios. The deals cited include Tamarack Valley Energy’s $10 billion all stock combination with Headwater Exploration, Diversified Energy’s $1.8 billion purchase of Birch Permian Holdings, Chevron’s $53 billion takeover of Hess Corp, and ExxonMobil’s $59.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources.
The study found oil production reached a five year high in 2025, but oil reserve additions from extensions and discoveries fell 11% and did not replace production for the first time since 2021. Combined oil reserves slipped by less than 1%. Natural gas trends were stronger: production rose 18%, reserves increased 14%, discoveries grew 21%, and reserve additions turned positive for the first time since 2021. LNG demand, electricity use and expanding AI related infrastructure and data centers are cited as longer term supports.
Can new supply match the demand forecast?
The projections put production and consumption at the same daily rate in 2026 and 2027, while exports also grow. Whether drilling gains and inventory levels can keep pace with those competing needs will shape the supply picture as the forecasts approach.
