Alaska $55B LNG Project in Talks With More Buyers Before Final Decision

Crude oil prices climbed again on Monday, with the United States Oil Fund (USO) up 2.91% to 130.29 dollars, sitting well above its 52 week low of 102.42 and pushing toward its 142.33 high. The RSI of 57.21 suggests momentum without overheating. Behind the daily tape, a bigger story is unfolding in the natural gas world: the alaska 55b lng project, long stalled by financing troubles, is edging closer to a final investment decision as new buyers line up.

At a Glance

• USO trades at 130.29 dollars, up 2.91% on the day, within a 52 week range of 102.42 to 142.33
• Glenfarne Group is negotiating with two more buyers for 3 million tons of LNG offtake
• The company has already locked in agreements covering more than 13 million tons of its 20 million ton target
• Alaska LNG is a two phase, 807 mile pipeline and export project estimated to cost 55 billion dollars
• The project would give the US its first major Pacific coast LNG hub, closer to Japan and South Korea than Gulf Coast rivals

Why the Alaska 55B LNG Project Is Gaining Ground

Two years ago, lenders and Asian buyers were wary of Alaska LNG. Arctic construction costs, tricky logistics and heavy upfront property taxes made the math hard to justify. That calculus has shifted. The Trump administration has thrown its weight behind the pipeline, with the president leaning on Japan and South Korea to buy in as a way to narrow their trade surpluses with the United States. Energy Secretary Chris Wright put it plainly last year, noting that once commercial buyers are locked in, financing tends to follow. Countries looking to shrink their trade gap with Washington, he said, have an easy lever to pull: buy more American energy.

Glenfarne Group, the lead developer, now says it needs 80% of its 20 million ton annual capacity target under contract before greenlighting construction. It has already secured deals for more than 13 million tons, and executives are in talks with two additional buyers to cover the remaining 3 million tons. Tokyo Gas and JERA, two of Japan's largest LNG importers, have already signed preliminary agreements. Glenfarne holds a 75% stake in the venture, with the state backed Alaska Gasline Development Corporation owning the rest. At a Tokyo business forum, Glenfarne CEO Brendan Duval said the final chunk of offtake commitments would come together quickly.

Two Phases, One Pipeline

The project splits into two stages built for speed. Phase One is domestic in focus: a 765 mile, 42 inch pipeline built in four simultaneous sections, carrying North Slope gas from Prudhoe Bay down to the Anchorage region to supply Alaskan homes and businesses. An optional 63 mile lateral line would tap secondary fields near Point Thomson.

Phase Two turns the project into an export machine. The pipeline would stretch to its full 807 miles, ending at Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula, where a three train liquefaction and storage terminal would produce up to 20 million tonnes of LNG annually. Greece's Danaos Corporation committed 50 million dollars in January to become the project's preferred shipping partner, planning to build and operate 6 to 10 LNG carriers bound for buyers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.

A Shorter Route to Asia

Geography is doing a lot of the selling here. The North Pacific Great Circle route links Alaska to major Asian ports without touching the Panama or Suez canals, sidestepping the congestion and geopolitical risk that come with those chokepoints. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, speaking at the same Tokyo conference, noted that Alaska sits roughly a third of the distance to Japan or Korea compared with the Middle East, a gap that shortens shipping times and, in his telling, strengthens energy security for buyers. The tradeoff is that Alaska's ports need specialized cold weather equipment and steady logistics support to handle high volume LNG traffic reliably.

Crude Prices and the Broader Energy Backdrop

The oil market's own rally reflects a mix of forces: tight inventories, geopolitical friction around chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and a dollar that has weighed on commodity pricing at various points this year. USO's move to 130.29 dollars, a 2.91% daily gain, puts it near the upper half of its 52 week band. Natural gas exports face a different competitive landscape. A wave of new US LNG capacity, including Venture Global's Plaquemines and CP2 projects, ExxonMobil's Golden Pass, Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi expansion, NextDecade's Rio Grande, Sempra Energy's Port Arthur facility and Woodside Energy's Louisiana LNG, could add roughly 14 billion cubic feet per day of capacity between 2025 and 2029, nearly doubling current US export volumes. Almost all of that sits on the Gulf Coast. Alaska LNG would be the outlier: a Pacific facing hub built specifically to reach Japan and South Korea faster than Gulf shipments ever could.

What Happens Next for Alaska LNG

The remaining question is whether Glenfarne can close out that last 3 million tons of offtake and trigger a final investment decision. If the Tokyo talks translate into signed contracts, the 55 billion dollar project could move from planning into construction relatively quickly, given how much groundwork, financing interest and shipping capacity is already lined up. Until then, it remains a closely watched bet on whether trade politics and geography can finally unlock one of North America's largest stalled energy projects.

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